Module 01
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Duration: 2.5 Hours • Difficulty: Beginner

The Business Case for Orbit

Mastering the launch market economics using advanced spreadsheets.

The Narrative

Nova Capital Junior Analyst Handover

You have just started as a Junior Analyst at Nova Capital. The firm is currently evaluating a massive investment in a satellite constellation startup called OrbitWeb.

OrbitWeb claims they can achieve profitability by launching 1,200 satellites at a "bulk rate" of $1,500/kg. Your Managing Director, Sara, is skeptical. She hands you a raw CSV of historical launch data and says:

"I need to know the ground truth. OrbitWeb's projections depend on market rates that haven't been seen yet. Pull the historical data, build a comparison model, and tell me: Is their $1,500/kg target realistic based on current market trends?"

Geographic Context

Geographic Slingshot Effect Diagram

Launch costs aren't just about fuel; they are about geography. Rockets launching from the Equator (like Kourou, FR) gain a "slingshot" effect from Earth's rotation, reducing $/kg. Rockets launching from higher latitudes (like Vostochny, RU) require more energy to reach LEO.

Step 1: Choose Your Platform

Excel Setup: Structured Data

  1. Download Launch_Costs.csv. Open Microsoft Excel from your computer, click File > Open, and select the downloaded file to view the raw data.
    Open CSV in Excel
  2. Table Conversion: Select any cell in your data and press Ctrl + T. This converts the raw data into a structured Table Object.
    Excel Table Object
  3. Naming: Right-click the worksheet tab at the bottom of the screen (typically named "Launch_Costs"), select "Rename", and change the tab name to LaunchMarket.
    Rename Excel Tab
  4. Data Hygiene: Navigate to the Data tab and click Filter (or click the arrows on the table headers). Use the dropdown menu to uncheck rows with 0 or missing values. In the space industry, a "0" usually means a flight hasn't happened yet (e.g., Starship v3).
    Excel Data Filters

The Efficiency Formula ($/kg)

To calculate efficiency for beginners: In Excel, every formula begins with an equals sign (=). Instead of typing numbers, we click the cells to create dynamic "links". Because we are using Tables, Excel uses readable names like [@ColumnName].

  1. Click in the first empty cell of your new, empty column next to the data. Title the column header Cost_Per_KG.
  2. In the first empty cell of that column, type the equals sign: =
  3. With your mouse, click on the cell in the CostPerLaunch_USD column for that exact same row. You will see =[@CostPerLaunch_USD] appear.
  4. Type the forward slash / (which means divide in Excel).
  5. Click the cell in the PayloadToLEO_kg column for that row.
  6. Press the Enter key. Because it is a Table, Excel will automatically copy the formula down to every single row!
=[@CostPerLaunch_USD] / [@PayloadToLEO_kg]

Google Sheets Setup: Collaborative Data

  1. Import the Data: Open Google Sheets, open a Blank Spreadsheet, then click File > Import > Upload to upload your Launch_Costs.csv file.
  2. Named Ranges: Select your entire Cost column by clicking the letter at the top, then go to Data > Named Ranges in the top menu. A sidebar will open; name this range LaunchCosts. This makes your formulas much more readable than B2:B50.
  3. Data Cleanup: Highlight all your data, then click Data > Data Cleanup > Remove Duplicates. Space data often has repeats from different reporting agencies.
  4. Conditional Formatting: Select your newly created "$/kg" column. Click Format > Conditional Formatting. Set the rule to "Less than" and value to "2000", then change the fill color to a bright green. These highlighted rows are your "Disruptors."

Step 2: The Comparator Model

Sarah needs to compare any rocket to another side-by-side without digging through 100 rows of data. We will build a dynamic "VS" tool using Excel's most powerful lookup function.

Advanced Lookup Logic: XLOOKUP

XLOOKUP is built like a search engine. You give it what you want to find, where to look, and what answer to bring back.

  1. Lookup Value: The specific rocket name you type in (e.g., "Falcon 9").
  2. Lookup Array: The column containing all rocket names (LaunchMarket[LaunchVehicle]).
  3. Return Array: The column containing the data you want to retrieve (LaunchMarket[Cost_Per_KG]).
=XLOOKUP(Target_Rocket, LaunchMarket[LaunchVehicle], LaunchMarket[Cost_Per_KG])

Step 3: The Investment Verdict

Based on your analysis, you must present a recommendation. Is OrbitWeb's $1,500/kg target achievable?

How to build the Executive Dashboard:

  1. Create a New Tab: Click the '+' at the bottom of Excel to make a new blank sheet. Name it "Dashboard".
  2. The Dropdown Menu: Click cell B2 on your Dashboard. Go to the Data tab in the ribbon and click Data Validation. Under 'Allow', select List. Click inside the 'Source' box, go to your LaunchMarket data tab, and highlight all the Launch Vehicle names. Click OK. Now cell B2 has a clickable dropdown!
  3. The Output Logic: In cell C2 next to your dropdown, type your XLOOKUP formula to pull the specific Cost/kg based on whatever rocket is selected in B2.
  4. The Chart: Go back to your data table. Highlight the "FirstLaunchYear" column, hold the Ctrl key, and highlight the "Cost_Per_KG" column. Go to Insert > Scatter > Scatter with Smooth Lines. Cut and paste this chart onto your Dashboard tab!

Artifact to Deliver

  1. Interactive Dashboard: A single sheet where changing a dropdown selection updates the "Efficiency" and "Success Rate" metrics automatically.
  2. Historical Trendline: A chart showing the drop in $/kg from 2000 to 2026.
  3. The Memo: A 100-word recommendation in a cell merged at the bottom: "Nova Capital should [Invest / Pass] because..."

Summary of Big Ideas

  • Units Matter: Metric vs. Imperial is the #1 cause of satellite failure. Always verify your payload mass units.
  • Structure > Cells: Tables and Named Ranges prevent "broken spreadsheet" syndrome once your dataset grows.
  • Market Reality: Launch costs have dropped ~80% in the last decade, primarily driven by reusability.